Crypto Bull Run Predictions: When Will the Next Bull Market Peak? (2026)

There’s a question that’s been asked almost every day in every crypto community, every Discord server, and every Twitter thread: “When is the next bull run coming?”

If you’re here, you’re probably looking for an answer. And the truth is, no one can tell you exactly when. But that doesn’t mean you should blindly guess. The crypto market cycle has a history, it has indicators, it has patterns. And when you know all of that, it stops feeling like you’re playing roulette.

This article is the most comprehensive guide you’ll find to crypto bull run predictions, what on-chain data says, how Bitcoin cycles work, what indicators like the Puell Multiple and CVDD show us, and what you can expect for the rest of 2026 and 2027.

In this article we will take a detailed look at what we need to see in terms of data to start a Bitcoin – Crypto Bull run.

No hype. No “3x in 30 days” promises. Just data, analysis, and honesty.

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The Crypto Market Cycle: The Basic Principle Everyone Forgets

Before we talk about predictions, you need to understand something fundamental: the crypto market doesn’t move randomly. It moves in cycles. And these cycles have a reason for being.

Imagine a pendulum. The market swings between two extremes: excessive pessimism (bear market) and excessive optimism (bull market). The pendulum never stops exactly in the middle, it always swings in one direction or the other. This is the crypto market cycle in its essence.

The typical Bitcoin cycle has four phases:

1. Accumulation: The price is low, sentiment is at a nadir, most people are “done with crypto.” This is the phase where smart investors quietly buy.
2. Markup: The price starts to rise. Slowly at first, then faster. The narrative changes. People start talking about crypto again.
3. Distribution: The price has reached outrageous levels. Old investors sell to new entrants with FOMO. Nobody wants to hear that the market is peaking.
4. Markdown: The price collapses. Headlines turn negative. The cycle repeats.

And at the center of this cycle is always one event: the Bitcoin halving.

Bitcoin Halving: The Mechanism Behind the Bitcoin Bull Run

Every four years or so, the Bitcoin network cuts the daily production of new Bitcoins (the “reward” for miners) in half. This is called a halving. The last one happened in April 2024.

Why does it matter? Because less supply, steady demand = upward pressure on the price. It’s not a theory, it’s the architecture of Bitcoin itself.

And historically, the Bitcoin bull run has followed each halving with a 12-18 month lag. If you count from the April 2024 halving, the window of opportunity opens in April-October 2025, and that’s exactly what history confirms: Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,025 in October 2025.

However, the next Bitcoin halving will take place on April 13, 2028.

Now, the big question: is the crypto bull market over or is it just pausing?

Where We Are Now: The Reality of July 2026

Let’s be honest about the current situation in the crypto market, the Bitcoin season went very well, but the money never went to Altcoins.

Bitcoin has fallen significantly from the ATH of $126K and at the moment I write the article the price of Bitcoin is at $64,533. BTC dominance remains around 57-59%, which means that the market is still “hiding” in Bitcoin instead of rotating in altcoins.

However, the world has not focused at all on Alt coins.

Bitcoin On-Chain Indicators You Need to Know

This is the heart of the article. Forget price targets and Twitter threads. If you want to understand where the crypto market cycle is, look at the data and what we will say here you will not find anywhere else.

Puell Multiple: What Miners Do Tells Us a Lot

The Puell Multiple was created by David Puell and is one of the most reliable indicators for spotting peaks and troughs in the Bitcoin cycle.

The idea is simple: miners are the ones who have to sell Bitcoin, they have electricity bills, hardware loans, salaries. They can’t wait like a long-term holder. This makes them a uniquely honest signal to the market.

How it’s calculated: It divides the daily value of newly issued Bitcoins (in USD) by the 365-day moving average of the same value. If the number is much above 1, miners are making too much, a sign of an overbought market. If it’s much below 1, miners are suffering, a sign of a possible bottom.

At the time of writing, it’s at 0.78, but historically, to tell us that Bitcoin has found a bottom it needs to be below 0.40

CVDD: The Indicator That Finds Bottoms with Almost Absolute Accuracy

Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) is one of the most impressive, and lesser-known, Bitcoin indicators. It has historically identified the bottoms of bear markets with astonishing accuracy.

The Basic Idea: Bitcoin has a concept of “Coin Days Destroyed” (CDD). If you hold 1 Bitcoin for 100 days and then move it, you have “destroyed” 100 coin days. The idea is that coins that move after a long period of inactivity carry important economic information, long-term holders have decided to do something about it.

CVDD takes this concept, makes it cumulative over time, and values ​​it in USD. The result is a line that rises continuously and has historically acted as a “floor” for bear market bottoms.

In every major bear market (2015, 2018-2019, 2022), Bitcoin’s price approached or touched the CVDD before turning around. It wasn’t luck. It was the mathematical representation of the concept: “when we get here, we’ve reached maximum economic pressure, this can’t last.”

Today, the CVDD is valued at around $48,000-55,000 and has been steadily rising over time. This means that even in a bearish scenario for 2026, the CVDD provides a structural “value zone” that has historically not been broken over the long term.

Other Indicators Worth Noting

Next we will see two important indicators in tradingview one is Bitcoin Halving Cycles (DotGain) and HSI – Halving Seasonality Index for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Halving Cycles: In this indicator you will see something crazy that it has predicted all the bottoms but also all the tops of Bitcoin.

You will see on the Chart that for the Bitcoin Bullrun, a DCA alert div appeared on December 12, 2022, which was actually the bottom of the market, and on October 13, 2025, a red div appeared indicating that the Bull market had reached a peak and that was where the top price was.

HSI:This indicator shows us the seasonality of Bitcoin based on halving and top price and bottom price and works in conjunction with Bitcoin Halving Cycles.

The forecast based on these two indicators shows us that we are below the middle of the bear market and the target we should have for the mid-term bottom is November 23, 2026 where a div alert for Buy will appear.

and we see on the chart that both indicators will give an alert, both the HSI and the Halving cycles and logically it will also be within the CVDD levels

Altcoin Season: When Is It Coming and How Not to Miss It

Every next crypto bull run follows a nearly unchanging sequence:

• Step 1: Bitcoin rises first. Institutional funds, ETF inflows, the “safe” option. BTC dominance rises.
• Step 2: Ethereum and large-cap alts follow. When Bitcoin stabilizes, profits start to roll in.
• Step 3: Mid-cap and small-cap altcoins skyrocket. This is “altcoin season,” the most opportunistic but also the most dangerous phase.

What does the data show now? BTC dominance is around 56-58%, right at the level that historically precedes an altcoin season, but hasn’t reached it yet. The Altcoin Season Index (which measures how many of the top-100 altcoins outperform Bitcoin) stands at 51, in a transitional phase.

Analysts agree that for a full altcoin season to begin, BTC dominance needs to break below 55% and head towards 45-50%. That hasn’t happened yet, but the historical structure is there.

This cycle won’t look like 2021. Back then, retail funds were flowing freely from Bitcoin to thousands of altcoins. Now, institutional capitalization through Bitcoin ETFs is creating an “ETF Wall”, these funds are locked in Bitcoin, not rotating in altcoins. The result: the altcoin season of 2026 – 2027 will be more eclectic, “everything” won’t go up indiscriminately. Projects with real use and ecosystem will win: AI tokens, RWAs (Real World Assets), DePIN, Layer-2 solutions.

What is worth noting is that 80% of small investors have left altcoins and say they will never get back in.

the reason?.

The reason is that altcoins did absolutely nothing in the 2024 – 2025 Bullrun.

And in general the market always does the exact opposite of what most people believe.

However, for an Altcoin season to begin, Bitcoin must first find a Bottom, something that still seems to have some way to go.

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What the Experts Say: Bitcoin Bull Run Predictions

Let’s take a look at what some big names are saying:

Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder): He believes Bitcoin could hit $200,000 as a result of the Fed’s continued liquidity injection, which he calls “QE in disguise.” Macro conditions, he says, are bullish for risk assets.

Geoff Kendrick (Standard Chartered): He believes the crypto bull market remains intact as long as the current momentum of ETF inflows continues.

Token Metrics analysts: In a base case scenario, the total crypto market cap could reach $10 trillion by mid-2027. In the moon case (40% cycle lengthening), the market extends to November 2026, with a market cap potentially reaching $14 trillion.

Ian Balina & “Lengthening Cycles” theory: Several analysts argue that cycles are becoming longer and smoother, due to institutional participation. Instead of quick violent rallies, they expect a “long and exhausting bull market” extending into 2026-2027.

Crowinvesting: The goal is to hold $55,000 and towards the turn of the year to see the first upward attempt, the goal by 2029 is $170,000 in Bitcoin

Crowinvesting – Our Personal Analysis

The Bitcoin bull run of 2025 with ATH at $126K was real, but it coincided with macroeconomic instability (tariff wars, geopolitical tensions) that limited it but everything else ended with the top halving cycle and the HSI.

Bitcoin did not collapse as “dead“, it did almost the same bear market cycle.

On-chain data (CVDD, Puell Multiple, Long-Term Holder behavior) shows structural value at current levels, however it shows that the price of Bitcoin by November could decline towards $55,000.

The most likely narrative for 2026 – 2029, if macros remain mild: Bitcoin return to ATH, slower and more selective altcoin rotation, with “winners” being AI, RWA, DePIN and L2 projects.

However, no bull run is guaranteed in this article, as I have shown you historically, the Bitcoin market has done, history does not repeat itself exactly but follows similar patterns.

Now if you want to start investing in Bitcoin, start with the Bitcoin DCA strategy until the first DCA alert for a bitcoin bottom we have 133 days.

If you start DCA from today there will be an exceptional average bitcoin purchase at $60,000.

However, a big risk in taking risks is always putting money that is not needed.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risks, including the total loss of capital. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.